A rare tropical depression is on course to enter the East Sea within the next 24 hours, potentially becoming the 21st tropical cyclone to form over the region in 2025 - a new record. What makes it even more extraordinary is its origin and path.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), by 7:00 p.m. on November 28, the depression's center was located off the eastern coast of Malaysia. It carried sustained winds of level 6–7 (39–61 km/h) and gusts up to level 9. The system was moving northeast at about 15 km/h.

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Forecast trajectory and intensity of the tropical depression as of the evening of November 28. Source: NCHMF

Experts explained that this depression is a remnant of Storm Senyar, which originally formed in the Indian Ocean and traveled across Malaysia before shifting into the northwestern Pacific basin - a highly unusual pattern.

“Storm Senyar was an exceptionally rare phenomenon, forming directly in the Strait of Malacca. Only one other storm has ever been recorded in that region - Storm Vamei in 2001,” a meteorologist noted.

Senyar developed from a low-pressure zone on November 22, 2025, strengthening into a storm that made landfall in northern Sumatra, Indonesia, on the night of November 26. It later weakened but continued skirting the Sumatran coastline before making a second landfall in peninsular Malaysia.

Though not particularly strong in terms of wind speed, Senyar brought torrential rainfall, triggering severe flooding and landslides across Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The disaster has resulted in more than 300 fatalities.

While weather systems often move from the western Pacific into the Indian Ocean, the reverse scenario - moving from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific - has never been recorded before in meteorological history.

Forecast models suggest that within the next 24 hours, the depression will continue northeast at 10–15 km/h, entering the southwestern waters of the East Sea with wind speeds maintaining level 7 and gusts at level 9.

By 7:00 p.m. on November 29, the depression’s center is expected to be over the southwest part of the East Sea. Over the following 24 hours, it will maintain course and intensity, located over the western part of the southern East Sea by the evening of November 30.

From 48 to 72 hours ahead, the system is expected to shift more north-northeast while gradually weakening, moving at 10–15 km/h.

Should the depression enter the East Sea as forecast, it would mark the 21st tropical storm system (including 15 typhoons) in the region this year - surpassing the record of 20 storms set in 2017, making 2025 a record-breaking year for cyclonic activity.

In the immediate term, the approaching depression is expected to produce strong winds of level 6–7 and gusts up to level 9 over the southwestern waters of the southern East Sea. Waves may reach heights of 2.5 to 4 meters, creating dangerous conditions for maritime activity. Thunderstorms, squalls, and rough seas are also forecast for affected areas.

Bao Anh