Experts warn Vietnam faces a looming power shortage as no major electricity projects have been implemented in the last decade, and over 170 renewable energy projects remain entangled in regulatory hurdles. The price cap on electricity is described as a “tightening noose” constraining the sector’s growth.

High risk of power shortage

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Experts warn of possible local blackouts in 2026. Photo: Hoang Giam

At the forum "Clearing the path for clean energy – Unlocking policy bottlenecks," held by Báo Xây dựng on October 8, Ha Dang Son, Director of the Center for Energy and Green Growth Research, said Vietnam is facing a major challenge: doubling its power capacity within five years starting from the end of 2025.

He highlighted that for the past ten years, virtually no large-scale electricity projects have been launched, creating significant delays for the coming phase. Most projects, including those with public investment, are either stalled or just beginning. Over 170 renewable energy initiatives remain stuck due to incomplete policies, which hinder private investment despite high demand for both capital and capacity.

As a result, the urgency to ensure sufficient power for economic development is becoming more critical in terms of both scale and speed.

Although the second turbine at the expanded Hoa Binh Hydropower Plant will soon add 400 MW to the grid, Mr. Son stressed that this addition is still far below what is needed. “By 2026, peak demand could spike, and if investment bottlenecks aren’t resolved in time, we may see localized blackouts,” he warned.

Nguyen Anh Tuan, Vice President of the Vietnam Energy Association, emphasized the importance of forecasting power supply up to 2030, warning that the risk of electricity shortage is high.

He noted that in the first eight months and part of September 2025 alone, Vietnam’s national electricity output had already reached 288 billion kWh. The full-year estimate is 307 billion kWh, reflecting the country’s strong economic growth.

“With expectations for power to drive industrial growth, green transportation, data infrastructure, and AI, the revised Power Development Plan VIII projects electricity consumption to hit 500–557 billion kWh by 2030. This requires immense investment capital, which the state budget simply cannot cover,” Tuan stressed.

He added that achieving this goal will require extensive mobilization of private capital, which is only possible if policies are truly open, stable, and consistent.

Removing the electricity price ‘tightening noose’

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Electricity pricing remains the sector’s biggest constraint, affecting both EVN and investors. Photo: Nam Khanh

Dang Quoc Bao, Deputy General Director of Trung Nam Group, recounted that around $15–20 billion in private capital flowed into renewable energy from 2020 to 2021  -  but the sector has since frozen.

“All the momentum the industry built up was abruptly halted. It’s disappointing. We hope the government will now offer long-term, stable policies to restore investor confidence,” Bao said.

Nguyen Duy Giang, Deputy CEO of PV Power, also pointed to the burdensome procedures and overlapping regulations that electricity investors face.

He shared that his company spent 3–4 years just handling investment approval procedures, followed by another 3–4 years building the plant. By the time it was ready, market conditions had changed.

As a solution, he proposed eliminating investment approval requirements for projects already included in the national energy plan. He also suggested reforming the bidding mechanism, which is currently organized by local governments but still overseen by the Ministry of Industry and Trade  -  leading to jurisdictional conflicts.

Comparing current regulations, Mr. Ha Dang Son praised Resolution 70 as a major breakthrough over the older Resolution 55, saying it introduces a more realistic and market-oriented approach to electricity development, especially regarding pricing mechanisms.

“Resolution 70 reflects a deeper understanding of the sector’s real-world challenges and offers clearer, more tailored mechanisms for energy projects,” he noted.

However, both government agencies like the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the state utility EVN, along with investors, continue to face obstacles  -  with electricity pricing acting as the main barrier. Resolution 70 calls for comprehensive reform of the pricing system to enable greater private sector participation.

Son also stressed that local governments need to take more initiative and build stronger implementation capabilities. “Despite central government efforts, if local authorities lack capacity, policies will not translate into practice.”

He added that EVN’s social responsibility obligations should be clearly separated  -  potentially through a special tendering mechanism funded by EVN’s profits and private contributions.

Improving EVN’s financial position, he said, is essential to better negotiate and attract private investment in the sector.

From a policy perspective, Tran Hoai Trang, Deputy Director of the Electricity Regulatory Authority under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, confirmed that Vietnam has revised several laws, including the Investment Law and the Bidding Law. “The current mindset is: wherever there’s a bottleneck, we remove it immediately,” he said.

“The adoption of Resolution 70 triggered a series of regulatory changes. But issues remain with investment timelines, electricity purchase contracts, and pricing. We’re collecting more feedback from businesses regarding investor selection and bidding methods. The Ministry has submitted two bidding mechanism proposals to the government,” Trang added.

Tam An