Despite strong export growth, Vietnamese businesses are struggling to adapt to new US trade barriers and environmental regulations.
Although Vietnam’s seafood, textile, and wood export sectors saw growth in the first eight months of the year, businesses are under mounting pressure due to shifting global trade policies, particularly from the United States and Europe.
Exports climb but concerns remain
At the 3rd Vietnam Economic Forum 2025 held on September 26 in Ho Chi Minh City under the theme “What drives GDP growth of 8.3-8.5% in 2025?”, representatives of various export associations addressed the unpredictable global market and its implications.
To Thi Tuong Lan, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), reported that seafood exports reached USD 7.3 billion in the first eight months of 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase. If the current pace continues, exports are projected to hit USD 10 billion by year’s end, up 10% from 2024.
To Thi Tuong Lan shares challenges facing the seafood export industry. Photo: Hoang Trieu
Lan noted that after China, the US is Vietnam’s second-largest seafood importer. However, Vietnamese seafood faces a 20% retaliatory tariff along with strict barriers under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), which does not recognize equivalency in 12 of Vietnam’s fishing practices.
This restriction means that, starting January 1, 2026, several domestic seafood products like crab, mackerel, and tuna will no longer qualify for export to the US. In addition, the sector is subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
In the European market, Vietnamese seafood has been under a "yellow card" warning for illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing for the past eight years, with no clear end in sight.
“These issues are creating enormous pressure on the seafood industry,” Lan warned. “We may meet the USD 10 billion target this year, but next year will be much more difficult.”
Green transition a major hurdle for textiles
In the textile and garment sector, Tran Nhu Tung, Vice President of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS), stated that exports in the first eight months reached USD 30.7 billion. If monthly exports maintain a minimum of USD 4 billion, the industry could hit USD 48 billion by the end of 2025.
Despite a 10% growth in the first half of the year, the rate dropped to just 7% by August. According to Tung, this slowdown in the third quarter is tied to the US retaliatory tariff policy.
“Since early April 2025, most US partners have pushed Vietnamese suppliers to ship orders early, ahead of the tariff enforcement. This led to inventory build-up and a sudden halt in imports by American buyers, stalling exports in the latter half of the year,” Tung explained.
VITAS Vice President Tran Nhu Tung speaks at the forum. Photo: Hoang Trieu
He added that the challenge for Vietnam’s textile industry is not about losing market share but adapting to green transformation. Only about 25% of companies have the financial capacity to invest in green technologies. Without compliance, they risk losing orders from the European Union, where environmental regulations are especially stringent.
Digital transformation also plays a critical role, especially in traceability of raw materials.
“When exporting to the US, buyers need to verify the origin of materials. Without digital systems, it’s hard to distinguish between Vietnamese-made products and transshipped goods from China,” said Tung.
Wood sector seeks diversification
Phung Quoc Man, President of the Handicraft and Wood Industry Association of Ho Chi Minh City (HAWA), reported that wood exports reached USD 11.1 billion in the first eight months of 2025, up 6.5% from the previous year. Despite growth, the industry faces similar hurdles: US retaliatory tariffs, a Section 232 investigation into plywood by the US Department of Commerce, and stringent anti-deforestation laws from Europe.
Man emphasized the need to diversify export markets to avoid overdependence on the US. He also suggested increasing exports of wooden furniture to add more value.
Laying the foundation for long-term development
Nguyen Cam Trang, Deputy Director General of the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, stated that national export turnover in the first nine months rose over 15% compared to last year, driven in part by companies rushing to ship goods to the US before new tariffs took effect.
Economist Tran Du Lich (center) calls for long-term development foundations. Photo: Hoang Trieu
Trang noted that unless a major global shock occurs, the annual export growth target is likely to be met, supporting broader economic growth.
However, she acknowledged that rules of origin remain a key bottleneck. For example, under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the “yarn-forward” rule requires that textiles be produced from domestically sourced yarn, which many Vietnamese firms still import.
Regarding transshipped goods, Trang confirmed that the Ministry of Industry and Trade is negotiating with the US for clarity. The US currently imposes a 40% tariff on transshipped products but has yet to provide a clear definition or guideline - an urgent matter for Vietnamese businesses to plan production accordingly.
Economist Tran Du Lich emphasized that GDP targets, such as the 8.3-8.5% goal for this year, are less important than laying a long-term growth foundation.
“The key is macroeconomic stability and market confidence,” he said. “We also need to remove institutional barriers. Implementation of Resolutions 68 and 57 must be effective to truly mobilize private sector resources.”
“If GDP grows 8.5% this year, but those fundamental reforms are not effectively executed, we will lack a solid foundation for the next phase. That’s why I support the Prime Minister’s push for infrastructure development. It not only stimulates short-term growth but also strengthens logistics systems for long-term economic expansion,” Lich concluded.
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