Associate Prof Nguyen Thuong Lang, senior lecturer at the Institute of International Trade and Economics, National Economics University (NEU), said the recent sharp drop in global gold prices could stem from speculative factors or short-term market fluctuations. He also mentioned the possibility of “hidden forces” influencing gold prices.

According to Lang, global gold prices may rise again once new developments emerge.

“Money supply policies, the Federal Reserve’s policy adjustments, and geopolitical tensions will continue to make gold prices volatile. One cannot treat a minor fluctuation as a clear trend,” Lang explained.

He added that as global gold prices decline while Vietnam prepares to import more gold, domestic prices are likely to cool down, narrowing the gap between local and international markets.

Economist Nguyen Tri Hieu noted that the recent drop in global gold prices is mainly due to profit-taking after prices reached record highs.

However, he said that the long-term trend for gold remains upward. This is driven by the ongoing US government shutdown, the lack of agreement between Republicans and Democrats, and persistent global geopolitical uncertainty. In addition, the US economy shows signs of slowing as unemployment and inflation rise.

“It is likely that the US FED will soon have to cut interest rates, weakening the US dollar. When the dollar depreciates, gold, which is priced in US dollar, tends to rise,” Hieu explained.

Domestic gold prices have been moving in line with the global trend. Although Vietnam’s Decree 232 has lifted the monopoly on gold bullion and allows commercial banks and gold traders to import gold, the implementation remains unclear, keeping domestic supply tight.

“Beyond global market factors, limited domestic supply is also pushing local gold prices higher,” Hieu said.

“This is only a short-term reaction. There is no clear factor suggesting a prolonged or deep decline. In the long run, both global and domestic gold prices are expected to follow an upward trend,” he emphasized.

How long will the decline last?

Associate Prof Nguyen Huu Huan from the HCM City University of Economics said: “Gold prices have risen by hundreds of dollars, so a downward adjustment is likely. Sharp rises followed by corrections are normal. Buying gold at very high prices carries significant risks.”

He noted that predicting gold prices accurately is difficult, as they have already exceeded many experts’ expectations. Still, long-term fundamentals suggest an upward trajectory.

Domestic gold prices have increased in accordance with global trends, but the core issue lies in unresolved supply constraints in Vietnam.

“Although the gold bullion monopoly has been lifted, gold imports have not yet been approved. If imports are allowed, the volume must be large enough to meet domestic demand so that the price gap with global markets can narrow,” Huan explained.

He added that in the current context, foreign currency is scarce. Using foreign reserves for gold imports would put pressure on the exchange rate, while foreign reserves should be prioritized for more critical goals such as exchange rate stability.

“Ending the monopoly is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient one. As long as supply falls short of demand, the gold market will not change significantly,” Huan said.

Although global prices are showing signs of cooling, Huan believes complex geopolitical factors and the unpredictable policies of US President Donald Trump’s administration are encouraging global investors to treat gold as a safe-haven asset. This is helping gold maintain its upward momentum.

Additionally, the trend of “de-dollarization” in some countries, especially China, to reduce the reliance on the dollar is further supporting gold prices.

“Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold holdings instead of dollar reserves, which continues to push global gold prices higher,” Huan explained.

He also pointed out that investor FOMO (fear of missing out), the Fed’s monetary policy, and potential rate cuts are all factors that could weaken the dollar and support gold prices.

“In every uptrend, gold prices tend to have correction phases. It is safer to buy during dips rather than chase rising prices. Many investors panic-sell when prices drop and rush to buy when prices rise, but doing the opposite is often more prudent,” Huan advised.

Hieu warned investors and people to be extremely cautious when buying gold, as prices do not always rise.

Duy Anh