Decree 232, recently issued by the government, removes the state monopoly on gold bar production and raw gold import-export for domestic gold bar production. This regulation will take effect on October 10.

Nguyen Quang Huy from the Faculty of Finance and Banking under Nguyen Trai University, described the end of the gold bar monopoly as a major turning point, fostering competition instead of SJC’s dominance in the market.

“With this regulation, as more commercial banks and enterprises can meet the requirements to join the market, gold bar supply will gradually improve, creating a foundation for a less distorted, more transparent market that comes closer to international prices,” Huy said.

However, he noted that this is a long-term impact, while in the short term, the market won’t change immediately due to delays in licensing, production, and building trust.

Huy believes that after the monopoly period, domestic gold prices are unlikely to drop quickly. Trust in the SJC brand remains strong, and new brands will need time to prove their quality and liquidity.

“Safe-haven demand amid global gold price volatility and limited domestic physical supply will keep prices high. In the medium to long term, with additional supply from banks and enterprises, the price gap between domestic and global markets will gradually narrow. But this process may take 12-24 months, or longer, to operate smoothly,” Huy explained.

The monopoly’s end will only take effect in over a month. Currently, SJC gold bar prices remain high, reaching VND127-128.5 million/tael (buying-selling) by the end of August 28. 

Should investors holding gold sell to take profits? Huy said the decision depends on each investor’s risk tolerance and expectations.

“For short-term investors, the historic price peak is a chance to lock in profits and reduce reversal risks. For long-term safe-haven investors, especially amid global instability and latent inflation, holding gold is viable but requires accepting strong volatility,” Huy advised.

Still, he stressed that the optimal strategy is portfolio diversification, avoiding over-concentration in gold and balancing risk across asset classes.

Gold market regulatory agency establishment proposed

Economist Nguyen Tri Hieu also applauded the removal of the state monopoly on gold bar production and the export-import of raw gold under Decree 232/2025, saying that the new regulation will make the market more open, level the playing field, and promote product diversity.

But he noted that the gold market will only see real changes if the decree is quickly and fully implemented, and does not just exist on paper.

“If there are no concrete steps, such as declaring that SJC is no longer the national gold brand, or allowing some commercial banks and enterprises to import gold, the market won’t see much of a shift,” Hieu said.

Under the new regulations, domestic gold prices could decrease by VND5-10 million per tael, provided that global prices remain stable, he said. If global prices continue rising, domestic prices will follow suit.

For future gold market management with multiple gold bar brands, Hieu noted that the State Bank has primarily handled regulation. However, gold is a precious commodity, not currency, and falls outside monetary policy and the State Bank’s direct authority.

Thus, he proposed establishing a dedicated agency, separate from the State Bank, to manage the gold market. This agency is in charge of stabilizing domestic gold prices, regulating supply-demand, narrowing the domestic-global price gap, controlling transactions, preventing smuggling, and overseeing all gold business activities.

Hieu suggested the Ministry of Finance as the suitable agency for this role.

On August 28, 2025, international gold prices surged, approaching $3,400/ounce. SJC gold bars in Vietnam rose by VND700,000/tael for buying and hit VND128.2 million/tael for selling. Gold rings also reached a new peak at VND123 million/tael.

By 2.42 pm, SJC’s 9999 gold price climbed to VND127-128.5 million/tael (buying-selling), up VND300,000/tael for both buying and selling compared to the morning.

Prior to that, on August 27, SJC and Doji listed 9999 gold bars at VND126-128 million/tael (buying-selling), up VND300,000/tael for selling and down VND100,000/tael for buying compared to the previous session.

SJC priced 1-5 tael gold rings at VND119.9-122.4 million/tael (buying-selling), up VND300,000/tael. Doji listed 9999 gold rings at VND119.8-122.8 million/tael (buying-selling), up VND500,000/tael, marking a new high.

Manh Ha