According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, as of 1:00 p.m. on October 21, the storm's center was positioned over the northern part of the Hoang Sa (Paracel) Islands.

Maximum sustained winds near the eye of the storm are at levels 9-10 (75-102 km/h), with gusts reaching level 12. The storm is moving southwestward at a speed of 10-15 km/h.

Storm track and intensity forecast:

By 1:00 p.m. on October 22, the storm is expected to shift west-southwest at 10-15 km/h, placing its center about 145 kilometers east-northeast of Da Nang. At that point, wind intensity is forecast to decrease to level 8 with gusts up to level 10. Natural disaster risk level: 3 (for the western waters of the northern East Sea, including the Hoang Sa archipelago, and waters from southern Quang Tri to Quang Ngai).

By 1:00 p.m. on October 23, the storm will continue moving west-southwest at 10-15 km/h and make landfall between Quang Tri and Da Nang. It is expected to weaken into a tropical depression, then a low-pressure zone over southern Laos. Wind speeds will drop below level 6. Natural disaster risk level remains at 3 (for coastal areas and islands such as Con Co, Cu Lao Cham, and Ly Son, as well as mainland coastal provinces from Quang Tri to Da Nang).

Impacts and warnings:

In the northwest part of the East Sea, including Hoang Sa, wind speeds will reach level 7-8, with gusts at level 9-10 near the storm center. Waves will reach 3-5 meters, up to 7 meters near the center. Sea conditions will be extremely rough.

Coastal waters from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai, including Con Co, Cu Lao Cham, and Ly Son islands, will experience winds at level 6, increasing to level 7 by the morning of October 22. Winds near the storm center could reach level 8, with gusts up to level 10. Waves are forecast at 3-5 meters, with rough seas expected.

Storm surge: Coastal regions from Quang Tri to Da Nang may see storm surges of 0.3 to 0.5 meters.

All vessels operating in the danger zone are at high risk of thunderstorms, waterspouts, strong winds, and high waves. Coastal areas must remain alert for flooding in low-lying zones and potential coastal erosion due to storm surge combined with tidal forces.

On land: From the afternoon of October 22, coastal provinces from Quang Tri to Da Nang will face increasing wind speeds, reaching level 6 and potentially level 7, with gusts up to level 9.

Heavy rainfall expected: Due to the influence of Storm No. 12, combined with cold air and easterly winds, and terrain-induced effects, heavy to torrential rain is forecast from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai between October 22 and 27, with the heaviest rainfall from the afternoon of October 22 through October 23.

Specific rainfall projections include:

Ha Tinh to northern Quang Tri and Quang Ngai: 200-400 mm, locally over 500 mm

Southern Quang Tri to Da Nang: 500-700 mm, locally over 900 mm

Extreme rain intensities could exceed 200 mm within a 3-hour period. Heavy rains in the central region may persist until the end of October 2025.

There is a very high risk of flash floods, landslides in mountainous areas, and urban and lowland flooding.

The meteorological authority has advised localities to ensure safe operations of hydropower and irrigation reservoirs, and to prepare emergency response plans as river water levels from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai may reach or exceed alert level 3. Flood risk level is rated at 3.

Authorities and residents are urged to stay alert for possible thunderstorms, tornadoes, and strong gusts in storm-affected areas, both before and during the storm's landfall.

Bao Anh