Statistics from VietNamNet show that as of June 30, 2025, the total outstanding real estate loans of 14 banks that disclosed detailed lending data by sector reached around USD 35.4 billion.

Except for LPBank and VPBank, which recorded declines, the other 12 banks increased their real estate lending compared to the end of 2024. PVCombank continued to lead, surpassing Techcombank for the second consecutive year to become the largest lender in the sector.

In the securities sector, total outstanding margin loans from the 40 largest brokerage firms reached a record USD 11.3 billion by the end of the second quarter.

At the July regular Government meeting, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Governor Nguyen Thi Hong said total system credit in the first seven months of 2025 rose about 10% from the end of 2024, a significant increase compared to 6% in the same period last year.

Addressing concerns over strong credit flows into real estate and securities, Governor Nguyen Thi Hong explained that although the growth rate in these sectors is higher than the average, it aligns with the government’s policy of easing difficulties in the real estate market. When legal obstacles for projects are removed, the demand for capital to implement them naturally increases.

As for securities, despite rapid growth, margin loans account for only 1.5% of total outstanding credit, posing no risk to the system. The SBV maintains strict monitoring of safety indicators.

Currently, the ratio of short-term capital used for medium- and long-term loans remains below 30%. The SBV continues to instruct credit institutions to balance capital flows by maturity to ensure system safety.

Caution advised for real estate lending

Associate Professor Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh noted that the credit growth for real estate and securities in the first seven months is not alarming, as the SBV is directing credit policies effectively for each sector.

He added that credit in these traditionally “sensitive” sectors has grown healthily in recent years.

“In principle, outstanding loans rarely decrease but rather rise steadily. This growth benefits the market and is not a cause for concern. Even in the US and EU countries, overall market credit growth is common,” Dr. Thinh explained.

He emphasized that with today’s improved legal framework and lessons learned from the past, the credit increase for real estate and securities is not worrying and remains under control.

Associate Professor Dr. Pham The Anh of the National Economics University said that to accurately assess the risks of lending to real estate and securities, more detailed data is needed.

The SBV does not release specific figures, only general statements that credit growth in these two sectors is higher than the average.

However, he considers credit flowing into securities to be less concerning. “With stocks, more trading means more borrowing, but this is only temporary,” he said.

“With real estate, though, a strong credit inflow carries greater risks, as the money mainly goes into projects rather than production. In an economy heavily dependent on real estate, increasing lending to this sector raises systemic risks,” he warned.

He expressed concern that unresolved old debts combined with mounting new debts could push property prices higher, destabilizing the economy. He stressed the need for caution in expanding real estate lending.

“Credit for real estate intended for construction and completion to bring products to market at reasonable prices is different from hoarding to drive up prices,” Dr. Pham The Anh noted.

At the July Government meeting, Governor Nguyen Thi Hong confirmed that in the first seven months of 2025, the SBV operated monetary policy proactively and flexibly in line with actual developments. Measures were implemented to simultaneously support growth and control inflation.

Key monetary indicators showed strong growth, with total money supply up 7.5% from the end of 2024, nearly double the increase in the same period last year.

For the long term, the Governor emphasized the need for comprehensive solutions to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. Two key proposals were highlighted.

First, to develop the capital market more robustly to meet medium- and long-term funding needs, thereby reducing pressure on banks’ short-term capital. This approach has been endorsed by the Government in its latest directive.

Second, to expand the credit guarantee program for small and medium-sized enterprises. If these businesses can access loans through guarantees, it will stimulate production across all economic sectors.

For sectors like real estate and infrastructure that require substantial long-term capital, funding should be mobilized through corporate bonds, municipal bonds, or international loans. “Only when capital is raised through the right channels and for the right purposes can we achieve both high growth and sustainable stability,” Governor Nguyen Thi Hong stressed.

Tuan Nguyen