Over the next 24 hours, the storm is expected to shift direction toward the west-southwest, slowing to 3–5 km/h. By 7 p.m. on November 28, it is forecast to be in the western part of the central East Sea, about 270 km northwest of Song Tu Tay Island, with winds weakening slightly to Category 11, gusting to Category 14.

Another directional shift will occur in the following 24 hours, this time moving northwest at a near standstill (3–5 km/h), with continued weakening. By 7 p.m. on November 29, the typhoon will still be in the western central East Sea and reduced to Category 10, with gusts up to Category 13.

The storm is predicted to maintain this northwest path with the same slow speed for another 24 hours. By 7 p.m. on November 30, it will be situated in the northwest sector of the central East Sea with wind strength between Category 9–10 and gusts still reaching Category 13.

From 72 to 120 hours later, Koto is expected to inch west-northwestward before shifting westward at 5–10 km/h, gradually weakening as it progresses.

Explaining the storm’s slow and erratic behavior, Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the NCHMF, said that after entering the East Sea, Koto's path was primarily guided by a subtropical high-pressure system east of the Philippines. This initially kept the storm on a steady westward course.

Now, that high-pressure ridge is weakening, diminishing its influence on the storm’s trajectory. As Koto moves farther west, it loses connection with this steering system, slowing down and drifting slightly northward.

In terms of intensity, Koto is likely to maintain its current wind strength through the day. With an incoming cold air front creating a pressure contrast, it may gain temporary momentum from the wind differential, helping it sustain strength at Category 10–11.

“However, once it nears the coastline - around longitude 113 - the cold air will intensify, sea surface temperatures will drop sharply, and the typhoon will begin to weaken,” said Lam, noting that post–November 28 developments remain complicated.

Due to its sluggish pace, Koto may persist over the sea through December 1–2, or even into December 3.

In the immediate term, the storm will bring strong winds to the central East Sea region (including the northern waters around the Spratly Islands), with wind speeds ranging from Category 7–9 and gusts up to Category 15 near the eye. Waves are expected to reach 4–6 meters, and up to 9 meters near the center, making seas extremely rough.

Starting early November 28, offshore areas from Gia Lai to Khanh Hoa provinces will experience winds of Category 6–7, potentially strengthening to Category 8 with gusts reaching Category 10. Wave heights may rise to 5–7 meters, and sea conditions will become increasingly hazardous.

All vessels in the affected areas face high risk from thunderstorms, whirlwinds, gale-force winds, and large waves.

Bao Anh